As we announced at the beginning of the year, we are carrying out “Special Updates” (complementary to our Sunday’s analysis at 20:45 CET) on companies chosen by our subscribers to analyse in detail the latest events, update our financial model, and revise our target price.

Two weeks ago, we published Ecoener, and last week, Italian Wine Brands. The voting is currently open to select the next company.

We will usually include this content in the 8:45 PM email rather than sending it as a separate email. Today is an exception due to the importance of the update for the company.

 

New Fortress Energy

New Fortress Energy is a company specialized in natural gas infrastructure, focusing on developing countries. It operates across the entire value chain (upstream, midstream, and downstream) and has been one of the most interesting stories in the markets over the past five years.

Since its IPO in 2019, the company has grown rapidly, increasing its revenues 10x in five years. It peaked in 2022 when record TTF prices in Europe allowed it to capitalize on the price gap by exporting U.S. LNG cargos. However, in recent months, high leverage and project delays led to a painful capital increase and debt refinancing, from which it is gradually recovering.

At MORAM Capital, we have published numerous analyses of the company, taking both long and short positions throughout this period— overall, with quite a bit of success, but also with some disappointment — .

You can find our latest analysis explaining in detail every single aspect of the company, along with the financial model of this company on the equity research section of our website

 

Today, we will focus on updating our downloadable economic model and the company’s target price based on the latest events.

 

We have four objectives with this analysis:

  1. Analyse (in $$) to what extent factors like the excess production of FLNG 1 (120% nameplate) are benefiting the company, considering both TTF-HH prices, the FLNG1’s production surplus and the volume from various uncovered contract portions, which can also be sold to Europe to capitalise on high TTF prices.
  2. Analyse the situation in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and Jamaica based on recent events (auction, construction, new contracts, etc.).
  3. Detail the cost and structure of the current debt and the post-refinancing structure.
  4. Value the company in the current situation, share our thoughts and strategy regarding NFE.

And we believe we have met them all

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