New Fortress Energy (refinancing) – A company for sale

New Fortress Energy is a natural gas infrastructure company for which we have published analysis quite frequently over the last 5 years. For those who are not familiar with it, it is characterized by:

• Its high degree of leverage, currently having an EV of $9.5Bn, of which only $3.1Bn is Equity. It’s true that it builds infrastructure, which is to some extent normal, but New Fortress always pushes to the limit, for better and for worse (like in the last 6 months).
• Exposure to emerging countries with energy needs (Puerto Rico, Nicaragua, Brazil, Mexico, Jamaica,…) & building facilities much larger than the needs of the signed contracts (to allow for scaling later with the signing of new contracts).
• Wes Edens, CEO and Founder, with no salary and a large percentage of the company. A great entrepreneur but who has constantly overpromised and in the last few quarters has lost the market’s trust.

You have the Equity Research of New Fortress Energy, the analysis of all its assets, and the financial model at your disposal, which we update regularly.

Today we will focus on evaluating its current financial situation after the refinancing and the individual valuation of each of its assets due to the high probability that they will sell one or several parts separately.

We have four objectives with this analysis:

1. To value the company in the current situation and how factors like the TTF HH gap impact it.
2. To provide guidance on what sale price to expect for the different parts of the business and what the company would be worth in each situation.
3. To detail the expected EBITDA by contract and asset to facilitate tracking the company.
4. To detail the cost and structure of the current debt and the post-refinancing structure.

And we believe we have met them all