Investment decisions

MORAM – 4Q21 Portfolio update

Introduction 

It has been a great year. We close 2021 achieving a positive return in each of the four quarters. Specifically, in this last quarter, the managed portfolio moved up 17.6%.

Our best performers in this 4Q21 have been Power REIT, Kistos, Greenalia and Greenvolt. 

We started the year with 9 positions in the managed portfolio, and we are finishing it with only 6. The main reason behind the higher concentration of the portfolio is the exposition to Crypto, started in 1Q21. MORAM was divided into 2 portfolios in 2020, Managed and Non-managed (aka index funds where we obtain the diversification we do not have in the Managed). In 2021, we added a Crypto portfolio, so we took the decision of concentrating the Managed portfolio, which is the one we report its figures here. We also talk about the Index funds we have and our crypto exposition in the last sections.

As stated since the beginning, we take the allocation and investment decision based on our understanding of the macroeconomic situation and expectations. Currently, we identify three main macroeconomic drivers: Inflation, supply-chain shortages and the European energy crisis. Consequently, our portfolio is allocated to take advantage of these situations.

Portfolio rotation in the 4Q21

As these drivers have not varied a lot in the last three months, in this last quarter of the year, we have not added any position. However, we have significatively increased our position in Kistos over the last 3 months, and we also have added some Golar shares after the shipping spin-out news. Unfortunately, in order to fund these movements, we have closed four of our positions. We closed Greenvolt and Italian Wine Brands where we do not have any type of exposition now. We also closed Tellurian, but we are playing that bet via long Calls. We also exited New Fortress, which we had hedged in 3Q21 and we do not expect to open a position again meanwhile Golar maintains 8.9% of its stake there.

We still think that each of these four companies is going to perform well in the future, but as stated in the last paragraph, the main driver has been Kistos, where we invest 80% of the amount obtained by selling them. We feel that Greenvolt and Italian Wine Brands are both fantastic projects with extraordinary management teams. However, inflationary pressures play against them. Greenvolt share prices had increased >60% in 5 months since its IPO. And, despite having started to build wind farms in Poland, we just thought that the potential revaluation was not as attractive as it could be in Kistos.

Same case for IWB, they are going to need time to digest the recent merge. In addition to this, high electricity prices in such an energy demanding industry are not good for its margins.

The Tellurian case is quite different. We believe that Driftwood projects is going to move ahead, and probably the financing will arrive in 1H22. It would be normal to get some dilution as Tellurian financial needs are several times its market cap. Besides, the construction of the project will take at least four years. Consequently, we have closed this position, but opened long calls for 2023 and 2024.

We also closed NFE in December. It was not because we do not believe in the project, and we are not happy with the selling price. But we had more interesting opportunities and as Golar has 8.9% stake in the company, we decided to move on.

The portfolio as of 31th December (Ordered by weight): Golar LNG, Kistos, Greenalia, Power REIT, Adriatic Metals, Penn Virginia/ROCC.

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Comments about the companies in the portfolio

Golar LNG

Golar LNG continues as the main position of the portfolio, and we feel quite optimistic about its future based on the last news published this quarter. However, it has been the biggest disappointment of 2021. The stock went up 27% this year, but it has turned up a transition year as we continue waiting for the new FLNG contract with BP. 

Golar sold Hygo to New Fortress Energy in January, as a result of that, it got 18.6 Million shares (9.8%) of New Fortress. And the share price of New Fortress has halved these 12 months, pulling down Golar shares. Maybe, the main reason has been the continuous delays in its business plan and the fact that in 2020, the stock went up 300% due to the high expectations put on the company. We believe that as soon as they start production in its 3 new plants in Brazil, the stock will go up.

Apart from New Fortress underperformance, Golar has also suffered from the decision of chartering all its fleet (conditioned by a weak financial condition in Dec 2020, solved selling NFE) as it has been a good year for LNGC rates, but Golar had not had vessels on spot, so it could not take advantage of the rates (this changes in 2022 where 50% of its fleet will be on spot in the 2H)

Fortunately, the future looks much brighter than in the past two years. Golar agreed to spin out the LNGC fleet into a new company (CoolCo) where it will have 33.3% ownership and will receive around $200MM by selling the other 66.6%. It means that Golar will become a pure infrastructure company, with predictable cash flows and avoiding shipping volatility.

We think that the FLNG new contract will arrive in 1H22. Besides, we are also waiting for Perenco’s drilling results, where we expect Hilli’s utilisation increment. We hope that both news will send Golar share to ’20s

Kistos

Kistos has become the second-largest position of the portfolio during the quarter. We believe that it is the best option to play the structural problem that Europe has with Energy supply. The high natural prices we have had in the 4Q21 will allow Kistos to fund the entire CAPEX required to develop its business plan for the next 3 years.

We have already talked about the background of its management and their legendary 42x return achieved in its previous vehicle (in only 4 years). However, the situation now is even better as we expect TTF prices to remain high for the next 15 months (until March-23), which would turn out in unimaginable profits (Kistos has made €0.85Millions per day on average in 4Q21). And we are talking about a €400MM market cap company.

Recently, we published a Kistos detailed analysis where we explained the company and its economics. Since then, the situation in the European gas market has worsened, and it is expected that the TTF prices will be much higher than usual for at least a couple of years

Greenalia

Greenalia has performed quite a flat year, but with high volatility. We like the company and the pipeline they have, but we also notice that it is going to be highly complicated for them to develop >40% of it. 

The main news of the year has been the solar plant acquisition in the US, the AK they did in November and the good results that they have achieved in 2021 due to the high electricity prices and the new wind farms connected to the grid in the 1H21. We expect them to present the financial close of Campelo, Bustelo and Monte Toural (110MW) and start building it soon. We would also expect a new AK to fund the solar plant in the US, and we expect this one bigger than the last one. 

They should also release the new strategic plan 2022-2026 in the 1H22. It should give more colour to the listing in the secondary market (still a bit sceptical at this market cap) 

In summary, we believe that Greenalia has a lot of potential, and its share price is far from where it can be. At the same time, we also think that the renewable sector is very competitive, and some of its peers are delivering faster and better.

Power REIT

Power REIT has been the best performed this quarter, and one of the best performers in the year. It has continued signing deals with >18% IRR, including the Michigan one, which is one of the biggest cannabis plantations in the US ($21MM deal for a $200MM market cap company). There are increasing signs that a Federal law for cannabis is going to be approved soon (We would say that in 2022), which will allow banks to start financing cannabis companies. Although it will increase competition and by contract, the rents will diminish, it will also remove uncertainty in the sector. So we can expect more investment in the cannabis industry.

Power Reit has obtained new financing this last week. A $20MM bank facility. We expect them to quickly deploy into new projects at similar IRR as obtained in the past (18-20%). In spite of the high increase in the share price since we bought the stock, we like the management a lot, the industry is growing at two digits and we believe that it is significantly undervalued compared to its peers.

Adriatic Metals and Penn Virginia

Adriatic Metals. It is a mining company in Bosnia, which has an incredible deposit, starting its operations next year. We liked Adriatic for several reasons such as the legislation in Bosnia, the quality of its mines, the discount it had. Overall, the asymmetric opportunity that gave as the trade. 

ROCC/Penn Virginia It is a company backed by an Energy PE that has recently acquired Lonestar Resources. We like the hedging criteria they have, and their balance sheet as it is levered enough to play in this market but without huge debt to get into trouble if there is a small reversal in the WTI(LLS) price. We will hold the security as long as we see that the oil market is strong enough. We hold the stock as the position is quite small, but our main exposition to ROCC is via options, as we believe that it is worthily the risk because due to the hedging strategy and the expected WTI price, the downside is quite limited (if we think the situation is going to change, we will close the options and the position)

Derivatives / Options

Penn Virginia – Sold puts at $10, $12.5, $15, $17.5 and $20 expiration Dec21, April22 and Jul22

Golar LNG – Leveraging… (Sold puts $7.5, $10, $12.5 expiration Oct21/Dec21/Mar22/Jun22)

NFE – Bought puts at $25 expired Dec21

ZIM – Sold puts at $30, $35 and $40 expiration Mar22 and Apr22

TELL – Bought calls at $6 Jan 24 and sold puts at $2.5 Apr22

Repsol – Sold puts at 8€ expiration Jun22

Comments about the Crypto portfolio

This quarter we have continued increasing our exposition to cryptos. The weight of crypto in the total portfolio went from 7% at the end of September to 12% as of 31st December. We increased our position in BTC, ETH, and Matic- Polygon. We also opened a position in Harmony. The crypto portfolio is complemented with small positions in Solana, Avalanche, and Fantom. 

We like asymmetric bets, and we are closely following the advance in the crypto universe. We are focused on how the number of apps and developers are growing exponentially in the last months almost in any main project.

We have allocated a considerable amount of time to study crypto this year, and we are thinking of new ways to have exposition to the crypto ecosystem in the near future apart from investing in L1-L2.

As Crypto weight is increasing considerably, we are creating a new section in the web and we soon allocate time enough to explain the portfolio, weights and the rationale behind each crypto investment.

Comments about positions in ETFs/Index Funds

We maintain our position in two out of the three Index funds we had at the beginning of the quarter, changing the Vanguard Global Small Cap Index by MyInvestor Nasdaq100. The rationale behind this is quite simple, the managed portfolio is fully concentrated in Small Caps and our environment is not the same it was at the beginning of 2021. (After the vaccine news, we were 90% in small caps. Now we continue preferring Small caps over large caps, but we cannot maintain the 90-10% relation

  • Ishares Developed Real Estate Index (45%)
  • MyInvestor Nasdaq100 (27.5%)
  • Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index (27.5%)

Final thoughts

It has been a very good year for our portfolio. The plan was clear, it has been executed accordingly, and the market has favoured us, which is the most important part.

Now, it is time to enjoy what we have done in 2021 and start to think about how to do this again in 2022, which is the best part of the investment process.

As we stated earlier, we should think about inflation, supply chain disruptions and the energy crisis in Europe. As the topics are quite obvious now, we are assessing how long can they last, and which are the best sectors to bet for in each of the different outcomes…

We set the bar high this 2021, but we are preparing ourselves to repeat it in 2022. The goal, apart to achieve high returns, will be to reduce volatility via options which we know is a major challenge for such a concentrated portfolio

Thank you for be with us this 2021, we hope you have a great 2022!

Best,

Carlos  

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