Like every month, we share the monthly update where we include the main developments that took place during the month of May for the companies we have featured on this website in the past twelve months, incorporating our perspective on the situation. Subsequently, we discuss our portfolio management, providing our opinion on the market and the featured companies. This content is purely educational and does not constitute any investment recommendations.
Results were reported on Tuesday, the 30th, and we presented a comprehensive analysis of them yesterday, which included the FLNG Hilli model (at present, with Hilli model, the results are highly predictable, as the impact of Shipping is very limited ($5MM) and corporate expenses ($19MM).
In summary, the highlights were the waiver on bonds to launch the $150MM share repurchase program and the $0.25/sh dividend. However, what is important in terms of Golar (the announcement of a new FID – FLNG that seemed imminent in the last conference call) appears to be postponed for a few more months. An MOU has been signed with NPCC (a Nigerian government entity), but it is a requirement that NPCC needed to allocate resources to this project (meaning they are negotiating with other clients at a more advanced stage, but the MOU was required here). Hilli has been refinanced (which is unusual to do before having a signed contract, expected in 1H24), and Gandría has been sold for $15MM for an LNG vessel from 2004 with higher capacity and lower boil-off (LNGC Fiji).
All details & model in the Golar’s 1Q23 article
The stock has been heavily penalized during the past month, without any specific news triggering the decline (although results were announced this week, the decline started earlier). However, even though these are not one-day events, the TTF (Dutch gas hub) prices are at 2021 levels (currently around €24/MWh), and production numbers are very poor due to alarming declines in both the Netherlands and GLA. When we add to this the reluctance to invest in energy companies in Europe due to the WFT (although its impact is currently limited due to low gas prices below €46/MWh) and the EPL in the UK (initially the Tories mentioned reducing its impact, but with just over a year until the elections and current poll results, it will be challenging), it creates further challenges. Another aspect to consider is the decrease in Kistos’ reserves (including impairments) reported in the results.
We discuss these topics in the Kistos FY22 analysis (later today), also we are updating the Kistos model this week (wanted to be done today, but we are dealing with a couple of points after reading the annual report and we prefer it to be accurate that on time. Nevertheless, the model will be added to the analysis in a couple of days)
continued to decline in May after the significant drops experienced in April. The directors/management continued with the share buybacks, mainly in the early days of the month. The acquisition of CWLH was finalized, and the RBL facility was signed, amounting to $200 million, providing funds for Akatara, infill drillings of existing assets, and potential acquisitions. The RBL also includes the obligation to hedge 40% of oil production from 4Q23 to 3Q24. Jadestone is set to report on Tuesday, June 6th, and we will analyze all the details thoroughly and publish our findings in the coming days.
Good Times Restaurants
As we mentioned, the results have been very impressive (excluding the $10MM gain from the declared tax asset). Good Times Restaurants is experiencing growth due to both price increases and higher restaurant traffic. As we discussed in our thesis, they have reopened new BDBB restaurants (one in April and another scheduled for the end of summer). Inflation on raw materials is decreasing, and margins are increasing.
This week, we spoke again with your CEO, and today we have published all the details of the interview. We believe it holds tremendous value since there are no analysts covering the company, and we have been able to gain a detailed understanding of the status of the litigation process, future plans, and corporate decisions.
The Italian Sea Group
released very good 1Q23 results, in which they announced a 23% increase in sales, with a strong increase in the EBITDA margin (from 14.8% to 16.2%). These results cement the 2023 Guidance of achieving 350-365 million in sales with a 16.5% EBITDA margin.
The net backlog decreased compared to the FY results (from 620 to 597 million). However, two sales above 70m have been recorded in April plus the sale of 3 megayacht recorded in May (around €80MM / Yacht), bringing that figure up >€300MM. During the next months/quarters, we expect the backlog to decrease as four large deliveries take place this summer and then to recover as they sign sales at the end of the year (when most of the roadshows take place).
During the call, Giovanni provided more color on the Celi acquisition. It is expected to help with the margin increase. Celi currently meets 40% of TISG needs, this number will increase up to 80% in the next 12/15 months. At this point, the management could study more opportunities for the furniture company that could become another source of revenue for the group.
The comments of the management on the sector demand have been very positive for large yachts and they expect to continue with the sales that should ramp up in the second half of the year. This should allow TISG to reach their objective (disclosed today) of achieving 300 million in order entry for the year. However, they have identified a slight slowdown on demand for yachts between 30 and 50 meters.
We are confident in TISG’S performance for the following years and we continue to value the resiliency of their strategy. We want to share some thoughts about the company margins. They have shown that they can manage the increase in raw material prices and we are pretty sure that the decrease in these prices should help improve even more the marginality as it is improbable that they decrease the sales price of the yachts.
1Q23 results were in line with what was expected. Revenues grew at 11.8% (from €164.4 to €183.7 million), and the EBITDA margin continued to expand from 15.8% to 17%. These results are in line with the 2023 Guidance of growing revenues at 11% up to 810-830 million with an EBITDA margin of 17%.
However, as advanced by TISG, there is a softening in the demand in the US for yachts shorter than 50 meters. This is mainly due to two reasons: