The production has been 12400 boepd which is bigger than the guideline (12000). It has been 6100 in the Netherlands and 6300 in GLA.
Proforma revenue from gas sales
Cash balance of €148MM (having already paid GLA assets – pending around $35-40MM bonus for NBP price to pay in January 2023). Its debt position is 123MM (GBP), so it is in
Realised gas price of €82.65 /MWh (including the 25% hedged at €25/MWh). Kistos is unhedged from 1 April 2022.
Unit Opex €5.56 per MWh (if fields around GLA start using the Kistos plant, this Opex will diminish. It is expected to start in 2024).
Q10A – yearly maintenance happened from mid-July to mid-August.
A work program to minimise production decline will commence in 4Q22 (October). It is expected to increase considerably the production in the first 4-8 weeks. After that, we expect the normal decline for the Q assets (Kistos documents)
The Orion (Oil) discovery could be developed using the Q10A platform, it would diminish the costs. Orion was tested last year at a maximum rate of 3200 boe/d
At this point, we expect Kistos to maintain Orion and not sell it. They completed the concept assessment, and the concept selection phase is underway.
Their application to explore the Ms fields was not granted and they have asked for a second revision. These gas fields are close to a protected natural area and contain vast deposits of natural gas.
They expect the Glendronach FID during 2022, and the first gas during 2024.
We believe they are moving ahead schedule this development to cushion the impact of the new UK law on taxes (65% instead of 40%)
They also say that the exploration well for Benriach is expected in 2023
Glendronach will allow Kistos to maintain production of around 6000 boepd until 2025 and cushion the decline after that. Benriach would need more development and would be operative from 2027-2028. However, Benriach is expected to be huge (70kboepd – 25% Kistos). If they succeed in drilling it, the upside will be considerable.
It is quite atypical for an investment that everything is going perfect. In Kistos, we are witnessing this situation. Even the production was better than expected. They performed the maintenance for the 10Q-B when the TTF was lower than it is now, and Orion, Glendronach, and Benriach are on schedule or ahead of schedule.
In wintertime, Kistos is going to build a huge cash position. If gas prices remain very high and there is not a deal in the coming months, we believe there will be buybacks and organic growth. If gas prices decline, we think that Kistos will buy assets and increase production.
In summary, we feel very comfortable having Kistos as the first position in the portfolio. The management is doing a great job and gas prices are going to be above normal for several years.
Last, we plan to update our Kistos thesis in October / November.
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