Golar LNG presented this Tuesday its 1Q23 results, as they are quite predictable (having Hilli modeled) we are going to share the model for Hilli (and Gimi) and focus on other important aspects

Golar LNG 1Q23 results

EBITDA $84MM and Net Loss $102MM (including $182MM non-cash market-to-market derivatives loss).This is because the Golar Hilli has a bonus linked to Brent and TTF, and at the end of each quarter, the money that would be earned for the remainder of the contract (until 3Q26) is calculated if prices were to remain at their current levels throughout the contract. That’s why the fluctuations are so significant. For example, if today were June 30th and TTF closed at the current €24/MWh, the losses for 2Q23 would be even larger. However, they have no cash impact.

Highlights YTD Golar LNG

  • NFE stake in Hilli acquisition (detailed analysis with Hilli model updated to current TTF & Brent prices included here)
  • Unwinded TTF hedges: locking in a total of $140 MM (operating cash flows) and gaining again exposure to TTF –  We supported this movement but it is turning to be bad at least in the short term. We still believe that they can make more money thanks to this movement and the risk/reward support this. However, we understand that someone with different risk/reward profile disagree with this.
  • Hilli refinancing (details later)
  • MOU with NPCC (Nigeria) – Not because it is the most advanced one they have, but being a state-dependent entity, this agreement was needed for NPCC to allocate the necessary resources.
  • Re-instated a quarterly dividend $0.25/sh and launch a $150MM buybacks program
  • Agreement to compensate Hilli underproduction in 22 with overproduction in 23 – Well.. 0.04 tons it is not very significant but to needle the numbers

Operational

FLNG Gimi start delayed to 1Q24. Golar states that they will claim compensation from BP for this delay. It should be noted that Golar had to pay the shipyard $50 million to expedite the delivery of Gimi. Remember that Gimi was already delayed for 11 months due to a force majeure claimed by BP on Covid (Golar at that time did not do anything believing that it would get a second FLNG after Gimi, now that this scenario is dismissed Golar is claiming for the situation. We have to ask them about this because, honestly, we do not expect a significant amount of money)

MOU signed with NNPC to develop multiple FLNG projects (5 years) , as we mentioned earlier, they are working on multiple fronts. This could be the destination for Hilli in 2026, but they are negotiating more things (with NPCC and other clients).

They sold LNGC Gandria (potential FLNG conversion – year 1977) ang bought Fuji LNG (for FLNG conversion into a Mark II FLNG 3.5 MTPA  (due to its  increased cargo capacity, larger deck space and lower boil-off.). However, The FID will be linked to charter visibility on recontracting of Hilli and/or Mark II FLNG.

Golar Hilli is not going to continue in Cameroon with Perenco after finalising its current contract. They are talking with several potential clients (5-6 Golar says). In order to set the infrastructure needed for Hilli to be able to operate, they need to sign up the new contract in mid-24. And they currently think it will come earlier than the third FLNG FID (Fuji FLNG conversion). 

Before talking in detail about Hilli, let’s have a look at the FCFE model (updated as of today)

Hilli model updated

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